1. Gukuraho "ibiciro by'amashanyarazi bishingiye ku gihe cyo kuyakoresha" bishingiye kuri politiki birimo kuba ikintu gishimishije. Mu mpera za 2025, Komisiyo y'Igihugu Ishinzwe Iterambere n'Ivugurura n'Ikigo cy'Igihugu gishinzwe Ingufu byatanze raporo zikurikiranye ivuga ngo "Itangazo ku Gukora Akazi Keza mu Gusinya no Kuzuza Amasezerano y'Amashanyarazi y'Igihe Giciriritse n'Ikirekire yo mu 2026" hamwe n'"Amategeko y'Ibanze ku Isoko ry'Amashanyarazi ry'Igihe Giciriritse n'Ikirekire", yombi yavuze neza ko:
Muri rusange, abitabira isoko batazongera gushyira mu bikorwa ibiciro by’amashanyarazi byagenwe na leta ku gihe cyo kuyakoresha.
Kunoza uburyo bwo gutanga ibiciro by'amashanyarazi mu gihe giciriritse n'igihe kirekire. Uturere twose tugomba kugenzura ko politiki y'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi mu gihe cyo gukoresha amashanyarazi mu gihe cyo hejuru n'ikibaya ijyanye n'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi ku isoko ijyanye n'igihe cyo gukoresha amashanyarazi ihuye. Muri rusange, abitabira isoko batazongera gushingira ku biciro by'amashanyarazi mu gihe cyo gukoresha amashanyarazi biteganywa na leta. Impande zombi mu masezerano y'igihe giciriritse n'igihe kirekire zirashishikarizwa gusinya amasezerano ajyanye n'isoko.
Ku bigo by'ubucuruzi bigira uruhare mu bikorwa by'isoko, nta ngingo zishingiye ku buryo bw'ubukorano zizabaho ku rwego n'igihe cyo gukoresha ibiciro by'amashanyarazi. Ku bakoresha amashanyarazi akoreshwa n'abakoresha amashanyarazi, ishami rya leta rishinzwe ibiciro rizahuza kandi rigatunganya igabanywa ry'igihe cy'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi n'igihe kitari icy'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi ndetse n'ikigereranyo cy'ihindagurika ry'ibiciro hashingiwe ku rwego rw'ibiciro ku isoko.
Nyuma y’ibyo, mu buryo burambuye bwo gushyira mu bikorwa ibikorwa by’igihe giciriritse n’igihe kirekire byakozwe mu 2026 mu ntara za Liaoning, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Henan, na Shanxi, byavuzwe neza nta gutandukana ko urwego n’igihe by’igihe cy’ikoreshwa ry’amashanyarazi bitazongera guteganywa mu buryo bw’ubuhimbano ku bigo by’ubucuruzi byitabira ibikorwa by’isoko mu buryo butaziguye. Ibi ntibivuze ko ibiciro by’amashanyarazi mu gihe cy’ikoreshwa bizashira, ahubwo ko uburyo bwo kubishyira mu bikorwa bwahindutse cyane - kuva ku "biciro bya leta" kugera ku "biciro by’isoko". Bitewe n’imibanire y’amashanyarazi n’ibikenewe ndetse n’ibikorwa bigamije isoko, ibiciro by’amashanyarazi byo hejuru, bisanzwe, n’ibitari iby’igihe kinini bizahinduka bitewe n’ibitangwa n’ibikenewe ku isoko, kandi ihindagurika ry’ibiciro by’amashanyarazi rizagaragaza neza imiterere y’isoko mu gihe nyacyo.
Ariko, ibiciro by’amashanyarazi bishingiye ku gihe cyo kuyakoresha (TOU) byanateje imbogamizi ebyiri zikomeye ku buryo bwa "peak-valley arbitrage" bw’uburyo busanzwe bwo kubika ingufu mu nganda no mu bucuruzi.
Ingamba zo gukoresha igihe zirakomeye, bigatuma bigorana guhuza n’ibikenewe mu mashanyarazi. Uburyo busanzwe bwo kubika ingufu bukunze gukora charge no gusohora umuriro mu gihe gihamye, ibyo bigatuma bigorana guhuza n’ikoreshwa ry’amashanyarazi ry’abakoresha. Cyane cyane mu gihe cyo “gubika ingufu za photovoltaic +”, kutagira ubushobozi bwo guhindura ibintu mu buryo bworoshye bishobora gutuma ikoreshwa ry’amashanyarazi rigabanuka cyangwa amashanyarazi akananirwa guhaza ibyifuzo byayo.
2) Ihindagurika ry'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi rirarushaho kwiyongera, bigatuma arbitrage irushaho kugorana. Bitewe n'isano iri hagati y'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi igihe cyo kuyakoresha n'isoko ry'amashanyarazi, ibiciro by'amashanyarazi bishobora guhinduka ku isaha cyangwa iminota 15, aho ibiciro by'amashanyarazi bizamuka bikagera kuri yuan 1/kWh. Mu gihe cy'ingufu nyinshi zikomoka kuri photovoltaic, ibiciro by'amashanyarazi bishobora no kubaho. Ingamba zisanzwe zihamye ziragorwa no kumenyera imiterere y'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi bigoye. None se, muri gahunda nshya y'isoko ry'amashanyarazi, ni gute uburyo bwo kubika ingufu z'inganda n'ubucuruzi bugomba gushaka inyungu nshya?
II. Kuva kuri "Peak-Valley Arbitrage" kugeza kuri "Microgrid Balancer" Ubunararibonye buturuka ku masoko y'amashanyarazi akuze mu Burayi bugaragaza ko uko isoko rirushaho kwiyongera, niko uburyo bwo gukoresha burushaho kuba bwinshi kandi agaciro k'uburyo bwo kubika ingufu karushaho kugaragara. Uruhare rwabo rurimo kuva kuri "igikoresho cyoroshye cya arbitrage cya peak-valley" kugeza kuri "icyuma gipima ubwenge cya mikoro-gridi zikwirakwiza photovoltaic na energy storage".
1. Polonye: Ikiguzi cy’amashanyarazi ku bakoresha cyagabanutseho 50%, kandi inyungu za photovoltaic (PV) ziyongereyeho hejuru ya 200%! Kuva mu 2025, Ikigo gishinzwe amashanyarazi cya Polonye cyashyizeho ibiciro by’amashanyarazi bihindagurika, ibiciro bihindagurika mu buryo bw’igihe nyacyo. Umukoresha utuye i Warsaw, umurwa mukuru, yashyizeho sisitemu yo kubika ingufu ya Siggy ifite ingamba zo gutegura gahunda ya AI, ishyiraho mikorosi ntoya yo kubika PV. Mu gihe cy’ibiciro by’amashanyarazi bihoraho, ibiciro bya PV byo gushyiramo byari 0.22–0.44 zloty kuri kWh gusa. Nyuma yo guhindura ibiciro by’amashanyarazi bihindagurika no guhuza sisitemu yo kubika PV isobanutse, binyuze mu kubika ingufu n’ingamba zo gutegura gahunda y’amashanyarazi, byashobotse "kubika amashanyarazi" mu gihe cy’ibiciro biri hasi no "kurekura" mu gihe cy’ibiciro biri hejuru, bigatuma amashanyarazi agabanuka kandi yongera inyungu. Amakuru y’umwaka umwe agaragaza ko ikiguzi cyo kugura amashanyarazi cy’umukoresha cyagabanutse kigera kuri 0.55 zloty kuri kWh, igabanuka rya hafi 50%; Igiciro mpuzandengo cy’ibiciro bya PV feed-in cyazamutse kigera kuri zlotys 1.09 kuri kWh, inyungu ziyongereyeho 220%-300%, kandi igipimo cyo kwiyishyurira cyariyongereyeho hejuru ya 200%.
2. Suwede: Sisitemu za Smart PV-ESS zigabanya fagitire z'amashanyarazi ku mpuzandengo ya 52.7%! Nubwo umushinga umwe muri Polonye ushobora kuba ari ikintu cyihariye, amakuru y'imibare yavuye mu mishinga irenga 2.500 muri Suwede agaragara cyane. Vuba aha, Siger New Energy yakoze isesengura ryimbitse ry'amakuru y'imikorere yavuye mu mishinga irenga 2.500 ya Smart PV-ESS muri Suwede maze isanga fagitire z'amashanyarazi zavuye mu mishinga ya 70.3%! Isoko ry'amashanyarazi muri Suwede rigabanyijemo uturere tune (SE1-SE4) hashingiwe ku miterere y'imikorere y'umuyoboro w'amashanyarazi, kandi imishinga irenga 2.500 yigenga ikwirakwizwa muri utu turere tune. Abakoresha bose bashyizwe ku rutonde kuva ku musaruro muto kugeza ku musaruro munini, nk'uko bigaragara ku ishusho iri hepfo.
Imibare igaragaza ko igabanuka ry’amafaranga y’amashanyarazi ku bakoresha ari 70.3%, aho igabanuka rya 52.7%. Iri tandukaniro ntiriterwa no kwivanga kw’abantu ku giti cyabo, ahubwo riterwa n’uko bamwe mu bakoresha mu turere dufite ihindagurika ry’ibiciro by’amashanyarazi babonye inyungu nyinshi zo kuzigama.
1. Gukwirakwiza hakoreshejwe ubuhanga bushingiye ku buhanga bwa AI: Gusobanukirwa ibiciro by'amashanyarazi n'ikoreshwa ry'amashanyarazi kugira ngo bigabanye ikiguzi kandi birusheho kunoza imikorere myiza mu gihe cy'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi bihindagurika ntibishobora kugerwaho hatabayeho imbaraga nyinshi z'ikoranabuhanga rya AI. Sisitemu y'ubuhanga ya photovoltaic n'uburyo bwo kubika ingufu igera ku bushobozi bukurikira binyuze mu kwigira hamwe no kongera imbaraga:
1) Kwiga ku mikorere y'amashanyarazi: Kwiga buri gihe imiterere y'ikoreshwa ry'amashanyarazi muri buri mushinga, kumenya aho imikoreshereze y'amashanyarazi igera, imiterere y'ikoreshwa ry'amashanyarazi nijoro, itandukaniro riri hagati y'iminsi y'akazi n'iminsi mikuru, n'ibindi, kugira ngo hubakwe imiterere yihariye y'imikoreshereze y'amashanyarazi.
2) Iteganyagihe ry'ingufu zikomoka kuri photovoltaic: Guhuza amakuru y'iteganyagihe kugira ngo hamenyekane neza umusaruro ukomoka kuri photovoltaic;
3) Igenamigambi ry'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi: Guteganya ihindagurika ry'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi hashingiwe ku makuru y'isoko no gushyiraho ingamba nziza zo gusharija no gusohora umuriro;
4) Gutunganya no guhindura imiterere y’ibikoresho: Gukoresha ingamba zo guhuza imiterere myinshi, guhuza iteganyagihe n’imyitwarire yo gushyiramo ibintu, no kubaka inzira nziza zo gutegura gahunda binyuze mu kwiga no kwigana ibintu; icyarimwe, gushyigikira impinduka mu ngamba za buri munsi no gutuma gahunda yihariye ishingira ku byo umukoresha akunda. Mu gihe kizaza, uko moderi za AI zikomeza gutera imbere kandi ingamba za algorithm zigakomeza kunozwa, sisitemu zo kubika ingufu za photovoltaic n’ingufu zizava ku kuba "zikoreshwa" zikajya ku "zikoreshwa neza", bifasha abakoresha benshi kugera ku mikoreshereze nyayo y’ingufu n’inyungu z’igihe kirekire.
IV. Imiterere y’amashanyarazi akoresha amashanyarazi aturuka kuri photovoltaic n’ingufu, yongerera imbaraga inganda zikoresha amashanyarazi aturuka kuri zero-karubone! Gahunda y’imyaka itanu y’Ubushinwa iragaragaza neza iterambere ry’umutungo kamere w’ingufu zikwirakwizwa hamwe n’iyubakwa ry’inganda na pariki zikoresha amashanyarazi aturuka kuri zero-karubone. Mu Kuboza 2025, Komisiyo y’Igihugu Ishinzwe Iterambere n’Ivugurura, Minisiteri y’Inganda n’Ikoranabuhanga mu Itangazamakuru, n’Ikigo cy’Igihugu gishinzwe Ingufu batangaje ku rwego rw’igihugu pariki 52 zikoresha amashanyarazi aturuka kuri zero-karubone. Muri Mutarama 2026, Minisiteri y’Inganda n’Ikoranabuhanga mu Itangazamakuru n’andi mashami ane basohoye "Ibitekerezo Biyobora ku Ikorwa ry’Inganda zikoresha amashanyarazi aturuka kuri zero-karubone," batanga igitekerezo cy’uko inganda nyinshi zikoresha amashanyarazi aturuka kuri zero-karubone zizahingwa kandi zikubakwa mu nganda ndwi zikomeye, zirimo amashanyarazi aturuka kuri photovoltaic, bateri za lithium, n’imodoka, bitarenze 2027; kandi zizagera ku nganda 12 zikomeye bitarenze 2030. Bishobora gusobanurwa ko inganda na pariki zikoresha amashanyarazi aturuka kuri zero-karubone bizaba bimwe mu bintu by’ingenzi bizateza imbere ingufu nshya mu gihe kizaza. Imiterere nk'iy'amashanyarazi akoresha ikoranabuhanga ritaziguye n'imigero mito y'amashanyarazi bizazana amahirwe menshi y'iterambere kandi bibe ingero z'ingenzi z'iterambere ry'ingufu nshya. Muri izi ngeri n'imigero, ibyo basaba by'ingenzi bihuye cyane n'iby'abakoresha bo muri Polonye na Suwede: kugera ku kiguzi cyiza cy'amashanyarazi mu buryo bwuzuye bushingiye ku isoko ry'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi. Ubunararibonye buturuka ku masoko yo mu mahanga bwerekana ko imigero mito y'amashanyarazi ikoresha amashanyarazi n'iy'ingufu ishobora kugabanya neza ikiguzi cy'amashanyarazi cy'abakoresha no kongera inyungu z'imishinga y'amashanyarazi ikoresha amashanyarazi; kandi, uko ibiciro by'amashanyarazi bigenda bihindagurika cyane, ni ko umusaruro urushaho kwiyongera! Ubu, sitasiyo z'amashanyarazi zirenga 17.000 ku isi zimaze gukoresha imigero ya AI, ikubiyemo ibiciro by'amashanyarazi bikoresha amashanyarazi mu bihugu 47, ishyiraho sisitemu yo gukoresha AI mu byiciro byinshi kandi ishobora gushyirwa mu bikorwa.
Umwanzuro
Musezera ku giciro cy’amashanyarazi gishingiye ku gihe gihamye gishingiye kuri politiki, kandi murakaza neza mu gihe cy’ibiciro by’amashanyarazi bishingiye ku isoko kandi bihindagurika. Iri si iherezo ry’agaciro ka photovoltaic (PV) na sisitemu zo kubika ingufu, ahubwo ni intangiriro nyayo y’igihe cy’ingufu zikoresha ubwenge. Binyuze mu igenamigambi rya AI no guhuza microgrid, PV na sisitemu zo kubika ingufu zirimo kuva ku "bikoresho byo kubika ingufu" gusa kugera ku "bipimo by’ingufu bikoresha ubwenge", bifata agaciro hagati y’ihindagurika kandi bigahindura ejo hazaza binyuze mu mpinduka.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Mutarama-23-2026